Background In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success, yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyze the effects of good compliance compared with poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity. Methods We estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England. Results We find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After 3 months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance; 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality. Conclusion Good compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures.

中文翻译：

---

在良好和不良合规情况下，COVID-19 封锁对工作生产力的影响


背景 为了应对 COVID-19 大流行，全球各国政府都实施了严格的社会疏远措施。公众遵守这些措施对于其成功至关重要，但遵守的经济后果尚不清楚。这是第一项分析良好依从性与不良依从性相比对 COVID-19 抑制策略（即封锁）对工作效率的影响的研究。方法 我们评估了工作效率的差异，比较了英国政府 COVID-19 抑制策略良好遵守情况和较差遵守情况的情况。我们根据基于个人的流行病学模型以及代表威尔士和英格兰劳动力的经济模型来预测英国抑制策略对死亡率和发病率的影响。结果我们发现，良好合规性对生产力的影响显着超过不良合规性，并且随着封锁时间的延长而增加。封锁3个月后，合规性良好的工作效率比合规性差的工作效率高出3.9858亿英镑； 75% 的差异是由于发病和非健康原因造成的生产力影响，25% 是由于避免了过早死亡造成的损失。结论 除了健康益处之外，良好遵守社交距离措施还超出了积极的经济影响。这是当前经济和卫生政策的重要发现。它强调了为公众制定明确指导方针、建立对规则的信任和支持以及在必要时强制遵守社会疏远措施的重要性。