How important were manufacturing and heavy industries to the economic integration of twentieth-century immigrants in Western societies? This article examines how macro-social change in Germany since the height of manufacturing has affected the socio-economic integration of male immigrants. We develop an analytical framework to assess how educational expansion among natives, deindustrialization, and the increasing importance of formal qualifications shape male immigrant-native gaps in labor-market outcomes over time. Empirically, we focus on first-generation male Turkish immigrants in Germany and use micro-census data spanning almost 40 years. Through a novel empirical quantification of key theoretical arguments concerning immigrant economic integration, we find growing inter-group differences between the late 1970s and mid-2000s (employment) and mid-2010s (incomes), respectively. The growth of differences between the immigrant and native income distributions was most pronounced in their respective bottom halves. Our analysis shows that these trends are linked to the increased importance of formal educational qualifications for individual labor-market success, to educational expansion in Germany, and to deindustrialization. Employment in Germany shifted away from middling positions in manufacturing, but while natives tended to move into better-paying positions, Turkish immigrants mainly shifted into disadvantaged service jobs. These results provide novel evidence for claims that the economic assimilation of less-skilled immigrants may become structurally harder in increasingly post-industrial societies. We conclude that structural change in host countries is an important, yet often overlooked, driver of immigrant socio-economic integration trajectories.

制造业和重工业对于 20 世纪移民在西方社会的经济融合有多重要？本文考察了自制造业高峰以来德国的宏观社会变化如何影响男性移民的社会经济融合。我们开发了一个分析框架来评估本地人的教育扩张、去工业化以及正式资格的日益重要性如何随着时间的推移影响劳动力市场结果中男性移民与本地人之间的差距。根据经验，我们关注德国的第一代男性土耳其移民，并使用跨越近 40 年的微观人口普查数据。通过对有关移民经济一体化的关键理论论点进行新的实证量化，我们发现 1970 年代末和 2000 年代中期（就业）和 2010 年代中期（收入）之间的群体间差异越来越大。移民和本地收入分配之间差异的扩大在各自的下半部分最为明显。我们的分析表明，这些趋势与正规教育资格对个人劳动力市场成功的重要性日益增加、德国的教育扩张以及去工业化有关。德国的就业从制造业中的中等职位转移，但本地人倾向于进入薪酬更高的职位，而土耳其移民主要转向弱势服务业。这些结果为以下说法提供了新的证据，即在日益后工业化的社会中，低技能移民的经济同化可能在结构上变得更加困难。我们得出的结论是，东道国的结构变化是移民社会经济融合轨迹的一个重要但经常被忽视的驱动因素。