We study how increased complexity in terms of increased stock-keeping units and/or markets can affect operational performance, with an emphasis on managerial decision-making. Specifically, when given the option to increase profits by increasing the number of markets served, we ask whether managers can increase profits by exercising this option or does increased complexity become a burden? We conduct a human-subjects experiment in which subjects manage a simulated supply chain across different levels of complexity, either as individuals or as part of a team. Subjects receive initial training in supply chain management and participate twice in the simulation—once as an individual and once as a team, while also varying complexity across trials. We show that as complexity increases, revenues also increase. However, average performance often deteriorates and many subjects destroy value, despite the increased opportunities for profit. We argue that managers are tempted to chase new revenue sources without understanding the costs or risks to future profits. In a follow-up experiment, we show that when subjects are reminded about the importance of opportunity costs, revenue declines but earnings are the same or higher. Lastly, our experiments show that both teamwork and experience increase performance and reduce the variance of earnings. Experienced teams make better investment decisions. Less experienced individuals focus on revenue rather than earnings.

中文翻译：

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供应链中产品扩散的行为陷阱：一项实验研究

我们研究在增加库存单位和/或市场方面增加的复杂性如何影响运营绩效，重点是管理决策。具体来说，当给出通过增加服务市场数量来增加利润的选项时，我们会问管理者是否可以通过行使此选项来增加利润，或者增加的复杂性是否会成为一种负担？我们进行了一项人类受试者实验，其中受试者以个人或团队的身份管理不同复杂程度的模拟供应链。受试者接受供应链管理方面的初步培训，并两次参与模拟——一次作为个人，一次作为团队，同时还改变了不同试验的复杂性。我们表明，随着复杂性的增加，收入也会增加。然而，尽管获利的机会增加了，但平均表现往往会恶化，许多科目会破坏价值。我们认为，管理者在不了解未来利润的成本或风险的情况下，很想追逐新的收入来源。在后续实验中，我们表明，当受试者被提醒机会成本的重要性时，收入会下降，但收入保持不变或更高。最后，我们的实验表明，团队合作和经验都能提高绩效并减少收入差异。经验丰富的团队做出更好的投资决策。经验不足的人关注收入而不是收入。在后续实验中，我们表明，当受试者被提醒机会成本的重要性时，收入会下降，但收入保持不变或更高。最后，我们的实验表明，团队合作和经验都能提高绩效并减少收入差异。经验丰富的团队做出更好的投资决策。经验不足的人关注收入而不是收入。在后续实验中，我们表明，当受试者被提醒机会成本的重要性时，收入会下降，但收入保持不变或更高。最后，我们的实验表明，团队合作和经验都能提高绩效并减少收入差异。经验丰富的团队做出更好的投资决策。经验不足的人关注收入而不是收入。