ABSTRACT

Since digitalization and Industry 4.0 have been recognized as a key issue for future economic development, prosperity and wealth distribution, several studies have emerged on the potential threats of new technology on workforce development. The consensus is that jobs may fall away, while some new jobs will be created, with a different skills profile and a new set of qualifications that are required. This paper examines the effects of three main indicators: the impact of skills, industrial sector dominance and product complexity on workforce reduction. Based on metropolitan data from the US (Census) and Europe (Eurostat), the author develops a metropolitan typology based on industrial sectors in each metro and analyses the systematic relationship between regional variations of automation, local skills and economic sector variations, finding that automation exposure in Europe is significantly lower than in the US and that medium-skilled manufacturing jobs in the US are increasingly threatened and low-skill service jobs remain relatively safe from automation – leading to a decreasing middle class. This also shows how metropolitan areas are at risk of developing polarized effects: some facing economic upturn and continuous prosperity, and a majority of others either stagnant or with extreme downturn and high unemployment rates.

摘要

由于数字化和工业 4.0 被认为是未来经济发展、繁荣和财富分配的关键问题，因此出现了一些关于新技术对劳动力发展的潜在威胁的研究。共识是，工作可能会消失，而一些新工作将被创造出来，具有不同的技能配置文件和一套新的资格要求。本文考察了三个主要指标的影响：技能、工业部门主导地位和产品复杂性对减少劳动力的影响。基于美国（人口普查）和欧洲（欧盟统计局）的大都市数据，作者基于每个都市的工业部门开发了大都市类型，并分析了自动化区域差异、当地技能和经济部门差异之间的系统关系，发现欧洲的自动化程度明显低于美国，而且美国的中等技能制造业工作受到越来越多的威胁，而低技能服务工作仍然相对安全，不会受到自动化的影响——导致中产阶级人数减少。这也表明大都市区如何面临产生两极分化效应的风险：一些地区面临经济好转和持续繁荣，而其他大多数地区要么停滞不前，要么面临极度低迷和高失业率。