Abstract

This article examines the economic consequences of migration for the Swedish welfare system. The question of whether the high costs of receiving refugees undermine the sustainability of the universal welfare state has received considerable attention in the political debate. While most studies focus on the fiscal burden of refugee reception and the short-term impacts of migration on welfare arrangements, this article advocates a comprehensive, long-term assessment of the effects of migration flows on public finances. Starting from the priorities of the architects of the welfare system, who designed and expanded social policy, indicators are derived to assess strategic goals and considerations. Reproduction of the workforce by managing its age profile, increasing employment levels and the employability of the surplus workforce, and creating conditions that increase long-term growth in the economy are considered crucial for the sustainability of the system. From a purely utilitarian perspective, migration is considered beneficial to the economy, provided that migrants gain quick entry to, and a high employment rate in, the labour market.

摘要

本文考察了移民对瑞典福利体系的经济影响。接收难民的高成本是否会破坏普遍福利国家的可持续性的问题在政治辩论中受到了相当大的关注。虽然大多数研究关注难民接收的财政负担和移民对福利安排的短期影响，但本文主张对移民流动对公共财政的影响进行全面、长期的评估。从设计和扩展社会政策的福利体系建筑师的优先事项出发，得出指标来评估战略目标和考虑因素。通过管理劳动力的年龄分布、提高就业水平和剩余劳动力的就业能力来再生产劳动力，创造促进经济长期增长的条件被认为对系统的可持续性至关重要。从纯粹的功利主义角度来看，只要移民能够快速进入劳动力市场并获得高就业率，移民就被认为对经济有益。