Stable and sustainable grain production is an important guarantee for national security, economic development and social stability. Water and land are essential resources in irrigated agricultural systems. There is intricate relationship in Water, land and food nexus with large uncertainties involved therein. Sustainable agricultural development requires effective and coordinated management of the water-food-land nexus. This paper developed a robust optimization model to optimize the allocation of limited resources and maximize irrigation water productivity in water-food-land nexus system. The proposed optimization model fully considers the system uncertainties to assist decision-makers in developing more effective water and land resource allocation plans. The model is demonstrated to solve a real-world nexus management problem in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the robust optimization method can solve the uncertainty disturbance and meet the target requirements, thus verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of the model in water-food-land nexus system. The model could be applied to similar river basins that have limited resources.

粮食稳定可持续生产是国家安全、经济发展和社会稳定的重要保障。水和土地是灌溉农业系统中必不可少的资源。水、土地和食物的关系错综复杂，其中涉及很大的不确定性。可持续农业发展需要对水-食物-土地关系进行有效和协调的管理。本文开发了一个稳健的优化模型，以优化有限资源的配置，并最大限度地提高水 - 食物 - 土地关系系统中的灌溉水生产力。所提出的优化模型充分考虑了系统的不确定性，以协助决策者制定更有效的水土资源配置方案。该模型被证明可以解决长江流域的现实世界关系管理问题。结果表明，鲁棒优化方法能够解决不确定性扰动，满足目标要求，从而验证了该模型在水-粮-地关联系统中的有效性和可行性。该模型可应用于资源有限的类似流域。