In recent decades, a change of paradigm in flood risk management (FRM) has been taking place worldwide. The most current legislation and policies reflect this. This change of paradigm implies a gradual transition towards the adoption of more proactive, integrating strategies which require investment in nature-based solutions (NbS) to mitigate flood risk while ensuring the good status of water bodies and restoring river-floodplain systems. To be effective, this transition should be accompanied by an evolution in governance: from top-down approaches to bottom-up schemes in which empowered and well-endowed stakeholder engagement becomes essential. However, the still limited experiences in implementing this combination present numerous potential difficulties and barriers. We use empirical techniques of social network analysis in combination with latent class cluster analysis to diagnose ex-ante these potential challenges to guide policy makers in designing suitable strategies of communication and involvement of stakeholders in the decision-making process. The analysis is carried out in two stages: (i) identifying and examining the relationships of key stakeholders involved in the management, conservation and exploitation of fluvial systems; and (ii) categorising stakeholders according to their perception of the effectiveness of NbS. Only by creating a cohesive and power-balanced river network is it possible to implement just and legitimate FRM strategy.

近几十年来，洪水风险管理 (FRM) 范式在全球范围内发生了变化。最新的立法和政策反映了这一点。这种范式的变化意味着逐步过渡到采用更积极主动的综合战略，这些战略需要投资于基于自然的解决方案 (NbS)，以减轻洪水风险，同时确保水体的良好状态并恢复河流泛滥平原系统。要想有效，这种转变应该伴随着治理的演变：从自上而下的方法到自下而上的方案，在这种方案中，授权和资优的利益相关者参与变得至关重要。然而，实施这种组合的经验仍然有限，存在许多潜在的困难和障碍。我们使用社会网络分析的实证技术结合潜在类别聚类分析来事前诊断这些潜在挑战，以指导决策者设计适当的沟通策略和利益相关者参与决策过程。分析分两个阶段进行：(i) 确定和检查参与河流系统管理、保护和开发的主要利益相关者的关系；(ii) 根据利益相关者对 NbS 有效性的看法对他们进行分类。只有建立一个有凝聚力和力量平衡的河网，才有可能实施公正合法的 FRM 战略。