Destructive winter storms cause recurring major damage to physical, biological, human, and managed systems in Central Europe. Therefore, detailed knowledge of their future development in many areas of human life is of great importance for planning strategic management decisions. One feature to characterise the winter storm intensity is the daily maximum gust speed for a 10-yr return period (GS_10yr). In this study, the development of GS_10yr under the representative concentration pathways RCP45 and RCP85 in the near future (2019–2049), mid future (2044–2074), and far future (2069–2099) was assessed. Gust speed projections were derived from 19 regional climate models (RCM) available from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. The GS_10yr estimates were first bias-corrected and then combined with the historical winter storm atlas for Germany (GeWiSA) yielding highly resolved (25 m × 25 m) GS_10yr grids. The results which are available on a monthly basis, indicate a significant increase in winter storm-related wind gust intensity in October under RCP45 and in November and December under RCP85 towards the end of the 21st century. The proposed methodology allows the quantification of the uncertainty associated with winter storm projections and the development of climate-sensitive storm damage models.

破坏性的冬季风暴对中欧的物理、生物、人类和管理系统造成反复出现的重大破坏。因此，详细了解他们在人类生活的许多领域的未来发展对于规划战略管理决策非常重要。表征冬季风暴强度的一个特征是 10 年重现期 ( GS _10yr )的每日最大阵风速度。在这项研究中，GS的发展_{十年期国债收益率}在代表浓度通路RCP45和RCP85在不久的将来（二○一九年至2049年），未来中期（2044至2074年）和远期（2069至2099年）进行了评估。阵风速度预测来自 EURO-CORDEX 倡议提供的 19 个区域气候模型 (RCM)。该GS _10年期估计值首先经过偏差校正，然后与德国历史冬季风暴图集 (GeWiSA) 相结合，产生高分辨率 (25 m × 25 m) GS _10yr网格。每月可获得的结果表明，到 21 世纪末，RCP45 下的 10 月和 RCP85 下的 11 月和 12 月与冬季风暴相关的阵风强度显着增加。提议的方法允许量化与冬季风暴预测相关的不确定性和气候敏感风暴损害模型的开发。