Abstract

Using data from a 2015 national survey of U.S. cities with a population of 50,000 or more, this research examines cities’ responses to a budget crisis. The study develops and tests a model of retrenchment choices that categorizes expenditure- and revenue-related actions implemented by cities based on the degree of loss that they are likely to inflict on budgetary actors and the resulting conflict. Factor analysis confirms that city responses can be categorized into two groups representing slight-loss/low-conflict and high-loss/high-conflict retrenchment actions. The study then applies regression analysis to identify the different economic, fiscal, demographic, political, governance, and institutional factors that influence reliance on different groups of retrenchment responses.

摘要

本研究使用 2015 年对人口超过 50,000 的美国城市进行的全国调查数据，考察了城市对预算危机的反应。该研究开发并测试了一个紧缩选择模型，该模型根据城市可能对预算参与者造成的损失程度和由此产生的冲突，对城市实施的与支出和收入相关的行动进行分类。因素分析证实，城市响应可以分为两组，代表轻微损失/低冲突和高损失/高冲突的紧缩行动。然后，该研究应用回归分析来确定不同的经济、财政、人口、政治、治理和制度因素，这些因素会影响对不同裁员反应群体的依赖。