PURPOSE We aimed to determine the incidence and prediction nomogram for new-onset metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a middle-aged Vietnamese population. METHODS A population-based prospective study was conducted in 1150 participants aged 40-64 years without MetS at baseline and followed-up for 5 years. Data on lifestyle factors, socioeconomic status, family diabetes history, and anthropometric measures were collected. MetS incidence was estimated in general population and subgroup of age, gender, and MetS components. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for MetS. A prediction nomogram was developed and checked for discrimination and calibration. RESULTS During median follow-up of 5.14 years, the accumulate MetS incidence rate was 23.4% (95% CI: 22.2-24.7). The annual incidence rate (95% CI) was 52.9 (46.7-60.1) per 1000 person-years in general population and higher in women [56.6 (48.7-65.9)] than men [46.5 (36.9-59.3)]. The HRs (95% CI) for developing MetS were gender [females vs males: 2.04 (1.26-3.29)], advanced age [1.02 (1.01-1.04) per one year], waist circumference [1.08 (1.06-1.10) per one cm] and other obesity-related traits, and systolic blood pressure [1.02 (1.01-1.03) per one mmHg]. The prediction nomogram for MetS had a good discrimination (C-statistics = 0.742) and fit calibration (mean absolute error = 0.009) with a positive net benefit in the predicted probability thresholds between 0.13 and 0.70. CONCLUSIONS The study is the first to indicate an alarmingly high incidence of MetS in a middle-aged population in Vietnam. The nomogram with simply applicable variables would be useful to qualify individual risk of developing MetS.

中文翻译：

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越南中年人群代谢综合征的发病率和预测列线图：5 年随访研究。

目的 我们旨在确定越南中年人群新发代谢综合征 (MetS) 的发病率和预测列线图。方法 一项基于人群的前瞻性研究在 1150 名年龄在 40-64 岁的参与者中进行，基线时没有发生 MetS，并随访 5 年。收集了有关生活方式因素、社会经济地位、家族糖尿病史和人体测量指标的数据。MetS 发病率在一般人群和年龄、性别和 MetS 成分的亚组中进行了估计。Cox 比例风险回归用于估计 MetS 的 95% 置信区间 (CI) 的风险比 (HR)。开发并检查了预测列线图的区分和校准。结果 在 5.14 年的中位随访期间，累积的 MetS 发病率为 23.4%（95% CI：22.2-24.7）。一般人群的年发病率 (95% CI) 为 52.9 (46.7-60.1)/1000 人年，女性 [56.6 (48.7-65.9)] 高于男性 [46.5 (36.9-59.3)]。发生 MetS 的 HR (95% CI) 是性别 [女性与男性：2.04 (1.26-3.29)]、高龄 [1.02 (1.01-1.04) 每一年]、腰围 [1.08 (1.06-1.10) 每一个cm] 和其他与肥胖相关的特征，以及收缩压 [1.02 (1.01-1.03) 每 1 mmHg]。MetS 的预测列线图具有良好的辨别力（C 统计量 = 0.742）和拟合校准（平均绝对误差 = 0.009），预测概率阈值在 0.13 和 0.70 之间具有正净收益。结论 该研究首次表明越南中年人群的 MetS 发病率高得惊人。