In this study, using the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations and by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the first mode of variability in interannual surface air temperature (SAT) in Antarctica (EOF1) was examined for the period between 1979–2004 and 2051–2099 during the austral summer. The ensemble mean of EOF1 of the CMIP5 models shows a positive SAT anomaly over the northern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and a negative SAT anomaly over Eastern Antarctica (EA) in both periods. A poleward expansion of the AP positive anomaly and an increase in the negative anomaly over interior EA are expected in 2051–2099, resulting in a larger difference of interannual SAT between interior EA and the AP in 2051–2099 than in 1979–2004. The increasing difference in the interannual SAT is consistent with a larger magnitude of the SAM-related circulation anomalies in the future.

中文翻译：

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未来气候情景下南极东部内陆和南极半岛之间夏季地表气温年际差异的增加

在这项研究中，使用气候模式比对项目 5 (CMIP5) 模拟和经验正交函数 (EOF) 分析，检查了 1979 年之间南极洲 (EOF1) 年际地表气温 (SAT) 的第一种变化模式–2004 年和 2051-2099 年的南方夏季。CMIP5 模型的 EOF1 的集合平均值显示两个时期南极半岛北部 (AP) 的 SAT 异常为正，南极洲东部 (EA) 的 SAT 异常为负。预计 2051-2099 年 AP 正距平向两极扩张，内陆 EA 负距平增加，导致 2051-2099 年内 EA 和 AP 年际 SAT 差异大于 1979-2004 年。