This analysis quantifies changesin global agricultural markets for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to yield changes triggered by climate change. The scenarios include four representative concentration pathways (RCP), five global climate models, three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) capturing differences in population levels and economic growth, and enhanced CO-fertilization. Yield projections incorporate the influence of SSPs on nitrogen application and agricultural technology. Depending on the SSP and comparing the RCP8.5 ensemble yields (with CO-fertilization) to a no climate change scenario in 2050, price increases for maize (61.3%–80.9%), soybeans (36.7%–51.7%), and wheat (5.4%–11.1%) are observed. Large wheat producers in temperate regions expand wheat production under climate change. Rice benefits from CO fertilization resulting in a relatively uniform price decrease across scenarios of 19.5%–19.9%. Cropland expansion between 2015 and 2050 is lowest for the high economic growth scenario. Depending on the crop and region, there are significant reductions in production especially for maize. Absolute changes in trade patterns are most pronounced for wheat and least for rice. Using trade as a means to dampen the negative welfare effects of climate change will be important and so is economic growth.

中文翻译：

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不同共享社会经济路径下气候变化对全球农产品市场的影响

该分析量化了由于气候变化引发的产量变化而导致的玉米、大米、大豆和小麦全球农业市场的变化。这些情景包括四个代表性浓度路径 (RCP)、五个全球气候模型、三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 捕捉人口水平和经济增长的差异，以及增强的二氧化碳施肥。产量预测结合了 SSP 对氮肥应用和农业技术的影响。取决于 SSP 并比较 RCP8.5 整体收益（与 CO-施肥）到 2050 年没有气候变化的情景，观察到玉米（61.3%–80.9%）、大豆（36.7%–51.7%）和小麦（5.4%–11.1%）的价格上涨。温带地区小麦生产大国在气候变化下扩大小麦生产。水稻受益于二氧化碳施肥，导致在 19.5%–19.9% 的情景下价格下降相对一致。对于高经济增长情景，2015 年至 2050 年间的耕地扩张是最低的。根据作物和地区的不同，产量会显着减少，尤其是玉米。贸易模式的绝对变化在小麦中最为明显，而在大米中最为明显。利用贸易作为抑制气候变化对福利的负面影响的一种手段将很重要，经济增长也很重要。