Findings from cross-sectional studies point to a positive correlation between commuting willingness and commuting behavior. Individuals who currently commute long distances to work express a greater willingness to do so in the future. In terms of policy and planning, planners and policymakers often regard the willingness to commute long distances as an important indicator of a population's potential future commuting behavior. However, given the emphasis on cross-sectional studies in the existing literature, it is unclear whether a high willingness to commute actually has an influence on the decision to engage in commuting (selection hypothesis), or whether participating in long-distance commuting determines willingness to commute (adaptation hypothesis). We use unique longitudinal data from four European countries – Germany, France, Spain, and Switzerland – to examine the relationship between individual level willingness to commute long distances (i.e. at least 60 min one-way) and actual commuting behavior. Results show that there is considerable within-person variance in commuting willingness over time. We find novel evidence that is in line with the adaptation hypothesis, meaning that starting a long-distance commuting episode is associated with an increase in commuting willingness. There is also some evidence for a selection effect, yet this effect appears to be considerably weaker. Therefore, this study provides more support for adaptation theories of commuting suggesting that commuting willingness can be understood as an outcome capturing people's attitudes toward their current commuting arrangements. Future commuting research should incorporate such possibilities into their conceptualizations of the commuting willingness construct and explanatory models for commuting behavior and outcomes. We also address implications for policy and practice.

横断面研究的结果表明，通勤意愿和通勤行为之间存在正相关关系。目前长途通勤上班的个人表示未来更愿意这样做。在政策和规划方面，规划者和决策者往往将长途通勤的意愿视为一个人口未来潜在通勤行为的重要指标。然而，鉴于现有文献对横断面研究的重视，尚不清楚高通勤意愿是否真的影响了通勤决策（选择假设），或者是否参与长途通勤决定了通勤意愿通勤（适应假设）。我们使用来自四个欧洲国家的独特纵向数据——德国、法国、西班牙、和瑞士——研究个人水平的长途通勤意愿（即单程至少 60 分钟）与实际通勤行为之间的关系。结果表明，随着时间的推移，人们的通勤意愿存在相当大的内部差异。我们发现了与适应假设一致的新证据，这意味着开始长途通勤与通勤意愿的增加有关。也有一些证据表明选择效应，但这种效应似乎要弱得多。因此，本研究为通勤适应理论提供了更多支持，表明通勤意愿可以理解为捕捉人们对其当前通勤安排态度的结果。未来的通勤研究应该将这些可能性纳入他们对通勤意愿结构和通勤行为和结果的解释模型的概念化中。我们还讨论了对政策和实践的影响。