Despite major recent advances in socio-hydrology and hydroeconomics research, interdisciplinary methods and models for water policy assessment remain largely concealed to the academic arena. Most river basin authorities still base decision-making on inputs from hydrologic Decision Support Systems (DSS), and have limited information on the economic costs that water policies may impose on the economy. This paper presents a time-variant hierarchical framework that connects a hydrologic module and an economic module by means of two-way feedback protocols. The hydrologic module is designed to fit the AQUATOOL DSS, the hydrologic model used by Spanish river basin authorities to inform decision-making at a basin scale; while the economic module is populated with a Positive Multi-Attribute Mathematical Programming (PMAMP) model that represents the behavior and adaptive responses of irrigators. The proposed hierarchical framework is used to assess the economic repercussions of strengthening irrigation quotas so to achieve minimum environmental flows in the Douro River Basin (Spain) under climate change. Results show that reductions in agricultural water allocations to meet environmental flow requirements create nonlinear incremental profit and employment losses in irrigated agriculture that are on average low to moderate (between −4% and −12.9 % for profit, and between −4.6 % and −12 % for employment, depending on the scenario). During extreme droughts, the abrupt reductions in water availability and agricultural allocations can test farming systems past the breaking point and lead to catastrophic profit and employment losses (>80 %).

尽管最近在社会水文学和水经济学研究方面取得了重大进展，但水政策评估的跨学科方法和模型在很大程度上仍不为学术界所知。大多数流域当局仍然根据水文决策支持系统 (DSS) 的输入进行决策，并且对水政策可能对经济施加的经济成本的信息有限。本文提出了一个时变分层框架，通过双向反馈协议连接水文模块和经济模块。水文模块旨在适应 AQUATOOL DSS，这是西班牙流域当局用来为流域规模的决策提供信息的水文模型；而经济模块则填充了正多属性数学规划 (PMAMP) 模型，该模型代表了灌溉者的行为和适应性响应。拟议的分层框架用于评估加强灌溉配额的经济影响，以在气候变化下实现杜罗河流域（西班牙）的最低环境流量。结果表明，为满足环境流量要求而减少农业用水分配会导致灌溉农业的非线性增量利润和就业损失平均为低到中等（利润在 -4% 和 -12.9% 之间，以及 -4.6% 和 -12 % 用于就业，视情况而定）。在极端干旱期间，