Study objective

The goals of this study were to determine the current and projected supply in 2030 of contributors to emergency care, including emergency residency-trained and board-certified physicians, other physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. In addition, this study was designed to determine the current and projected demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians.

Methods

To forecast future workforce supply and demand, sources of existing data were used, assumptions based on past and potential future trends were determined, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the final forecast would be subject to variance in the baseline inputs and assumptions. Methods included: (1) estimates of the baseline workforce supply of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants; (2) estimates of future changes in the raw numbers of persons entering and leaving that workforce; (3) estimates of the productivity of the workforce; and (4) estimates of the demand for emergency care services. The methodology assumes supply equals demand in the base year and estimates the change between the base year and 2030; it then compares supply and demand in 2030 under different scenarios.

Results

The task force consensus was that the most likely future scenario is described by: 2% annual graduate medical education growth, 3% annual emergency physician attrition, 20% encounters seen by a nurse practitioner or physician assistant, and 11% increase in emergency department visits relative to 2018. This scenario would result in a surplus of 7,845 emergency physicians in 2030.

Conclusion

The specialty of emergency medicine is facing the likely oversupply of emergency physicians in 2030. The factors leading to this include the increasing supply of and changing demand for emergency physicians. An organized, collective approach to a balanced workforce by the specialty of emergency medicine is imperative.

中文翻译：

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急诊医学医师劳动力：2030 年的预测

学习目标

本研究的目标是确定 2030 年急诊护理人员的当前和预计供应情况，包括接受急诊住院医师培训和董事会认证的医师、其他医师、执业护士和医师助理。此外，本研究旨在确定对接受住院医师培训、董事会认证的急诊医师的当前和预计需求。

方法

为了预测未来劳动力的供需，使用了现有数据的来源，确定了基于过去和潜在未来趋势的假设，并进行了敏感性分析，以确定最终预测将如何受到基线输入和假设的差异的影响。方法包括：(1) 估计医师、执业护士和医师助理的基线劳动力供应；(2) 估计进入和离开劳动力的原始人数的未来变化；(3) 劳动力生产力的估计；(4) 对紧急护理服务需求的估计。该方法假设基准年的供应等于需求，并估计基准年与 2030 年之间的变化；然后比较不同情景下 2030 年的供需情况。

结果

工作组的共识是，最有可能的未来情景被描述为：每年 2% 的研究生医学教育增长，每年 3% 的急诊医师流失率，20% 的执业护士或医师助理会见，以及 11% 的急诊就诊次数增加相对于 2018 年。这种情况将导致 2030 年急诊医生过剩 ​​7,845 人。

结论

急诊医学专业在 2030 年面临急诊医师可能供过于求的局面。导致这种情况的因素包括急诊医师供应的增加和需求的变化。急诊医学专业必须采取有组织的集体方法来平衡劳动力。