Changes in mean climatic conditions will affect natural and societal systems profoundly under continued anthropogenic global warming. Changes in the high-frequency variability of temperature exert additional pressures, yet the effect of greenhouse forcing thereon has not been fully assessed or identified in observational data. Here, we show that the intramonthly variability of daily surface temperature changes with distinct global patterns as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. In both reanalyses of historical observations and state-of-the-art projections, variability increases at low to mid latitudes and decreases at northern mid to high latitudes with enhanced greenhouse forcing. These latitudinally polarized daily variability changes are identified from internal climate variability using a recently developed signal-to-noise-maximizing pattern-filtering technique. Analysis of a multimodel ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 shows that these changes are attributable to enhanced greenhouse forcing. By the end of the century under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, daily temperature variability would continue to increase by up to a further 100% at low latitudes and decrease by 40% at northern high latitudes. Alternative scenarios demonstrate that these changes would be limited by mitigation of greenhouse gases. Moreover, global changes in daily variability exhibit strong covariation with warming across climate models, suggesting that the equilibrium climate sensitivity will also play a role in determining the extent of future variability changes. This global response of the high-frequency climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing is likely to have strong and unequal effects on societies, economies, and ecosystems if mitigation and protection measures are not taken.

在持续的人为全球变暖的情况下，平均气候条件的变化将深刻影响自然和社会系统。温度高频变化的变化会施加额外的压力，但温室效应对其的影响尚未在观测数据中得到充分评估或识别。在这里，我们表明，随着温室气体浓度的上升，每日地表温度的月内变化具有不同的全球模式。在对历史观测和最新预测的重新分析中，随着温室强迫的增强，低纬度到中纬度地区的变异性增加，而北部中高纬度地区的变异性减少。使用最近开发的信噪比最大化模式过滤技术，可以从内部气候变化中识别出这些纬度极化的每日变化变化。对耦合模型比较项目第六阶段的多模型集合的分析表明，这些变化可归因于温室强迫的增强。到本世纪末，在一切照旧的排放情景下，低纬度地区日气温变率将继续增加多达 100%，而北部高纬度地区则将减少 40%。替代情景表明，这些变化将受到温室气体减排的限制。此外，全球每日变率的变化在气候模型中表现出与变暖的强烈协变，这表明平衡气候敏感性也将在确定未来变率变化的程度方面发挥作用。如果不采取缓解和保护措施，高频气候系统对增强的温室效应的全球反应可能会对社会、经济和生态系统产生强烈且不平等的影响。