Using spatially disaggregated district-level data from India, this study has investigated the impact of climate change, especially rising temperature, on land use in agriculture or cropping patterns, presupposing that climate change influences farmers’ acreage allocation decisions via its effects on crops’ comparative yield advantage. The findings show that excess temperature negatively impacts crop yields, and the impact is higher in the plausible future climate scenarios. Under the greenhouse gas representative concentration pathway RCP4.5, the yields of different crops are lower by 1.8 to 6.6% in the medium-term (2041–2060) and 7.2 to 23.6% in the long-term (2061–2080). The heterogeneity in the crops’ yield response to temperature, however, does not lead to any notable intra- and inter-regional shifts in the cropping patterns. The area shares of different crops decline by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points in the medium-term and 0.4 to 1.3 percentage points in the long-term. This evidence suggests limited prospects for adaptation to climate change through adjustments in land use. The future adaptation strategies should, therefore, be built around the innovations in crop breeding for stress tolerance, higher yields and resource-use efficiency, management of land and water resources, and formal risk-mitigating mechanisms such as crop insurance and hedging.

本研究使用来自印度的空间分解区级数据，调查了气候变化，尤其是气温升高对农业土地利用或种植模式的影响，假设气候变化通过其对作物比较的影响来影响农民的土地分配决策。产量优势。研究结果表明，过高的温度会对作物产量产生负面影响，而且在可能的未来气候情景中，这种影响会更大。在温室气体代表性浓度路径RCP4.5下，不同作物的产量在中期（2041-2060年）下降1.8-6.6%，在长期（2061-2080年）下降7.2-23.6%。然而，作物产量对温度的反应的异质性不会导致种植模式的任何显着的区域内和区域间变化。不同作物面积份额中期下降0.1～0.4个百分点，长期下降0.4～1.3个百分点。这一证据表明，通过调整土地利用来适应气候变化的前景有限。因此，未来的适应战略应围绕作物育种创新，以实现抗逆性、更高的产量和资源利用效率、土地和水资源的管理以及正式的风险缓解机制，如作物保险和对冲。