Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an economic crisis with far-reaching effects throughout the entire world. In the EU, governments face the need for policies that will counter the negative economic effects. To do this, they require reliable tax revenue predictions to help plan and finance policies that will set the European economies on the road to recovery. The current study aims to offer up-to-date accurate forecasts of tax revenues for the 27 EU member states for the period 2020-2022. A time trend model regression model adjusted with the unemployment rate is estimated for each member state using data for the period 1995-2019. Based on this regression model, forecasts for tax revenues are made. The results show a decline in tax revenues in 2020 and 2021 followed by a slight recovery in 2022 for most EU member states. The study also offers fiscal policy recommendations for the EU aimed at improving and stabilizing tax revenue collection in the future.

摘要

COVID-19 大流行导致了一场经济危机，对整个世界产生了深远的影响。在欧盟，各国政府需要制定能够应对负面经济影响的政策。要做到这一点，他们需要可靠的税收预测，以帮助规划和资助政策，使欧洲经济走上复苏之路。目前的研究旨在为 27 个欧盟成员国提供 2020-2022 年期间税收收入的最新准确预测。使用 1995-2019 年期间的数据为每个成员国估计了一个随失业率调整的时间趋势模型回归模型。基于此回归模型，对税收收入进行预测。结果显示，大多数欧盟成员国的税收收入在 2020 年和 2021 年有所下降，随后在 2022 年略有回升。