The relationship between beech (Fagus crenata) reproductive-organ (female flowers: FFs, male inflorescences: MIs, and filled masts: FMs) production and the numbers of nuisance Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) killed (NBs: an indicator of the extent of bear intrusions into residential areas) in a snowy rural region in central Japan was studied over 15 years. The yearly fluctuation of beech reproductive-organ productions between the three study stands was strongly synchronous. There were strong significant pairwise correlations between FFs, MIs and FMs. To identify factors associated with NBs in the May–July (BMJ), August (BA), and September–November (BSN) periods, a model selection procedure using generalized linear mixed effect models was applied with two explanatory variables: FMs in the preceding year (PFMs) and MIs in the current year. Both PFMs and MIs had little effect on BMJ, implying that NBs was independent of these variables in the spring–early summer. MIs had a significant negative effect on BA, implying that NBs increased in mid-summer when MIs were small. PFMs and MIs had significant positive and negative effects, respectively, on BSN, implying that NBs increased in the fall when MIs (i.e., FMs) were small. PFMs had a much smaller effect than did MIs. In conclusion, bear intrusions into human settlements from mid-summer to fall increased in years with minimal MIs, suggesting that bear intrusions in the season of a given year can be predicted by observation of the density of MIs fallen on the forest floor until July in beech stands.

山毛榉（Fagus crenata）生殖器官（雌花：FFs，雄花序：MIs，丰满的桅杆：FMs）产量与滋扰日本黑熊（Ursus thibetanus japonicus ）数量之间的关系) 在日本中部多雪的农村地区被杀死（NBs：熊侵入住宅区程度的指标）被研究了超过 15 年。三个研究林间山毛榉生殖器官产量的年度波动是高度同步的。FFs、MIs 和 FMs 之间存在很强的显着成对相关性。为了确定与 5-7 月 (BMJ)、8 月 (BA) 和 9-11 月 (BSN) 期间 NB 相关的因素，使用广义线性混合效应模型的模型选择程序应用了两个解释变量：前面的 FM年 (PFM) 和当年的 MI。PFMs 和 MIs 对 BMJ 几乎没有影响，这意味着 NBs 在春季 - 初夏与这些变量无关。MIs 对 BA 有显着的负面影响，这意味着当 MIs 小时，NBs 在仲夏增加。PFMs 和 MIs 分别对 BSN 有显着的正面和负面影响，这意味着当 MIs（即 FMs）较小时，NBs 在秋季增加。PFM 的影响比 MI 小得多。总之，从仲夏到秋季，熊对人类住区的入侵在 MIs 最小的年份有所增加，这表明可以通过观察 7 月之前落在森林地面上的 MIs 的密度来预测给定年份的某个季节的熊入侵。山毛榉林立。