Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling,Advanced Theory and Simulations

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Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling
Advanced Theory and Simulations ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-01 , DOI: 10.1002/adts.202100157
Agnieszka Truszkowska _{1,

2} , Malav Thakore ₃ , Lorenzo Zino ₄ , Sachit Butail ₃ , Emanuele Caroppo _{5,

6} , Zhong-Ping Jiang ₇ , Alessandro Rizzo _{8,

9} , Maurizio Porfiri _{1,

2,

10}

Affiliation

Center for Urban Science and Progress Tandon School of Engineering New York University 370 Jay Street Brooklyn NY 11201 USA.
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Tandon School of Engineering New York University Six MetroTech Center Brooklyn NY 11201 USA.
Department of Mechanical Engineering Northern Illinois University DeKalb IL 60115 USA.
Faculty of Science and Engineering University of Groningen Nijenborgh 4 Groningen 9747 AG The Netherlands.
Department of Mental Health Local Health Unit ROMA 2 Rome 00159 Italy.
University Research Center He.R.A. Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Rome 00168 Italy.
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tandon School of Engineering New York University 370 Jay Street Brooklyn NY 11201 USA.
Department of Electronics and Telecommunications Politecnico di Torino Turin 10129 Italy.
Office of Innovation Tandon School of Engineering New York University Six MetroTech Center Brooklyn NY 11201 USA.
Department of Biomedical Engineering Tandon School of Engineering New York University Six MetroTech Center Brooklyn NY 11201 USA.

As COVID-19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high-resolution agent-based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll-out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY — representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll-out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening.

中文翻译：

通过基于代理的高分辨率建模设计美国城镇的安全重新开放

随着 COVID-19 疫苗在美国推出，公共卫生当局正在逐步重新开放经济。迄今为止，地方当局尚未就共同方法达成共识。在这里，提出了一种基于高分辨率代理的模型来检查疫苗推出所提供的免疫力增强与重新开放工作相关的传播风险之间的相互作用。该模型忠实地再现了代表美国城市结构的纽约州新罗谢尔镇的人口统计、空间布局和流动模式。模型预测表明，在目前人们接种疫苗的速度下，重新开放时应保持谨慎，即以每天 1% 的速度增加休闲场所和家庭社交聚会的机会，可能会导致未来三年内死亡率增加 28%几个月。疫苗的推出对于重新开放的安全性起着至关重要的作用：预计将目前的疫苗接种率加倍就足以安全、快速地重新开放。

更新日期：2021-09-07

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