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Does Counting Different Life Stages Impact Estimates for Extinction Probabilities for Tsetse (Glossina spp)?
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-02 , DOI: 10.1007/s11538-021-00924-1
Elisha B Are 1, 2 , John W Hargrove 3 , Jonathan Dushoff 1
Affiliation  

As insect populations decline, due to climate change and other environmental disruptions, there has been an increased interest in understanding extinction probabilities. Generally, the life cycle of insects occurs in well-defined stages: when counting insects, questions naturally arise about which life stage to count. Using tsetse flies (vectors of trypanosomiasis) as a case study, we develop a model that works when different life stages are counted. Previous branching process models for tsetse populations only explicitly represent newly emerged adult female tsetse and use that subpopulation to keep track of population growth/decline. Here, we directly model other life stages. We analyse reproduction numbers and extinction probabilities and show that several previous models used for estimating extinction probabilities for tsetse populations are special cases of the current model. We confirm that the reproduction number is the same regardless of which life stage is counted, and show how the extinction probability depends on which life stage we start from. We demonstrate, and provide a biological explanation for, a simple relationship between extinction probabilities for the different life stages, based on the probability of recruitment between stages. These results offer insights into insect population dynamics and provide tools that will help with more detailed models of tsetse populations. Population dynamics studies of insects should be clear about life stages and counting points.



中文翻译:

计算不同的生命阶段是否会影响对采采蝇 (Glossina spp) 灭绝概率的估计?

由于气候变化和其他环境破坏,昆虫种群数量下降,人们对了解灭绝概率的兴趣越来越大。一般来说,昆虫的生命周期发生在明确定义的阶段:在计算昆虫时,自然会出现关于要计算哪个生命阶段的问题。以采采蝇(锥虫病的载体)为案例研究,我们开发了一个在计算不同生命阶段时有效的模型。以前的采采蝇种群分支过程模型仅明确表示新出现的成年雌性采采蝇,并使用该亚种群来跟踪种群增长/下降。在这里,我们直接对其他生命阶段进行建模。我们分析了繁殖数量和灭绝概率,并表明用于估计采采蝇种群灭绝概率的几个先前模型是当前模型的特例。我们确认无论计算哪个生命阶段,繁殖数都是相同的,并说明灭绝概率如何取决于我们从哪个生命阶段开始。我们展示了不同生命阶段灭绝概率之间的简单关系,并提供了生物学解释,基于阶段之间的招募概率。这些结果提供了对昆虫种群动态的见解,并提供了有助于建立更详细的采采蝇种群模型的工具。昆虫种群动态研究应明确生命阶段和计数点。我们确认无论计算哪个生命阶段,繁殖数都是相同的,并说明灭绝概率如何取决于我们从哪个生命阶段开始。我们展示了不同生命阶段灭绝概率之间的简单关系,并提供了生物学解释,基于阶段之间的招募概率。这些结果提供了对昆虫种群动态的见解,并提供了有助于建立更详细的采采蝇种群模型的工具。昆虫种群动态研究应明确生命阶段和计数点。我们确认无论计算哪个生命阶段,繁殖数都是相同的,并说明灭绝概率如何取决于我们从哪个生命阶段开始。我们展示了不同生命阶段灭绝概率之间的简单关系,并提供了生物学解释,基于阶段之间的招募概率。这些结果提供了对昆虫种群动态的见解,并提供了有助于建立更详细的采采蝇种群模型的工具。昆虫种群动态研究应明确生命阶段和计数点。基于阶段之间的补充概率,不同生命阶段的灭绝概率之间的简单关系。这些结果提供了对昆虫种群动态的见解,并提供了有助于建立更详细的采采蝇种群模型的工具。昆虫种群动态研究应明确生命阶段和计数点。基于阶段之间的补充概率,不同生命阶段的灭绝概率之间的简单关系。这些结果提供了对昆虫种群动态的见解,并提供了有助于建立更详细的采采蝇种群模型的工具。昆虫种群动态研究应明确生命阶段和计数点。

更新日期:2021-08-02
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