In 2019, the operational Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model (GRAPES-TCM) was updated by adopting the characteristic parameters in the official real-time released TC data of CMA, introducing the horizontal sixth-order diffusion scheme and adjusting the operational flowchart. In the case of the Super Typhoon Lekima, the model exhibits a reliable prediction ability for the type of tropical cyclone (TC) with northwestern tracking. The track and intensity forecasts in 2019 are significantly better than those over the past five years on average. The updated model can provide a skillful forecast of landfall position and rapid weakening process. Moreover, the precipitation pattern is close to the observation. TC forecast in 2019 shows that the updated GRAPES-TCM has a smaller track error than that of the previous year, and the 24 h intensity forecasting ability is improved.

2019年，全球区域同化预测系统-热带气旋模型（GRAPES-TCM）更新，采用CMA官方实时发布的TC数据中的特征参数，引入水平六阶扩散方案并调整操作流程图。在超级台风利奇马的情况下，该模型对西北跟踪的热带气旋（TC）类型表现出可靠的预测能力。2019年的轨迹和强度预测均明显好于过去五年的平均水平。更新后的模型可以提供对登陆位置和快速减弱过程的熟练预测。此外，降水模式接近观测。