For decades, the western North Pacific (WNP) has been commonly indicated as a region with high vulnerability to oceanic and atmospheric hazards. This phenomenon can be observed through general circulation model (GCM) output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The CMIP consists of a collection of ensemble data as well as marine surface winds for the projection of the wave climate. Wave climate projections based on the CMIP dataset are necessary for ocean studies, marine forecasts, and coastal development over the WNP region. Numerous studies with earlier phases of CMIP are abundant, but studies using CMIP6 as the recent dataset for wave projection is still limited. Thus, in this study, wave climate projections with WAVEWATCH III are conducted to investigate how wave characteristics in the WNP will have changed in 2050 and 2100 compared to those in 2000 with atmospheric forcings from CMIP6 marine surface winds. The wave model runs with a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution in spherical coordinates and a 10-min time step. A total of eight GCMs from the CMIP6 dataset are used for the marine surface winds modelled over 3 hours for 2050 and 2100. The simulated average wave characteristics for 2000 are validated with the ERA5 Reanalysis wave data showing good consistency. The wave characteristics in 2050 and 2100 show that significant decreases in wave height, a clockwise shift in wave direction, and the mean wave period becomes shorter relative to those in 2000.

中文翻译：

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使用 CMIP6 海洋表面风对北太平洋西部波浪气候的多模式集合预测

几十年来，北太平洋西部 (WNP) 通常被认为是对海洋和大气灾害非常脆弱的地区。这种现象可以通过耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP) 的大气环流模型 (GCM) 输出观察到。CMIP 由一组集合数据以及用于预测波浪气候的海洋表面风组成。基于 CMIP 数据集的波浪气候预测对于 WNP 地区的海洋研究、海洋预测和沿海开发是必要的。许多关于 CMIP 早期阶段的研究很丰富，但使用 CMIP6 作为最近的波浪投影数据集的研究仍然有限。因此，在本研究中，使用 WAVEWATCH III 进行波浪气候预测是为了研究与 2000 年相比，在 CMIP6 海洋表面风的大气强迫下，WNP 的波浪特征在 2050 年和 2100 年将如何变化。波浪模型以球坐标系中 0.5° × 0.5° 的空间分辨率和 10 分钟的时间步长运行。来自 CMIP6 数据集的总共 8 个 GCM 用于模拟 2050 年和 2100 年超过 3 小时的海洋表面风。2000 年的模拟平均波浪特征通过 ERA5 再分析波浪数据进行验证，显示出良好的一致性。2050年和2100年的波浪特征表明，与2000年相比，波高显着降低，波向顺时针移动，平均波周期变短。