The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) is an actuarial risk assessment tool for intimate partner violence (IPV) recidivism. Despite its international use, there is no published validation of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in a U.S. sample. We studied 356 men in New York police records of IPV against a female partner to examine the ODARA’s predictive accuracy for IPV recidivism (base rate 35%), non-IPV violent recidivism (against a nonpartner; 16%), any violent recidivism (49%), and nonviolent recidivism (50%), in a fixed 2-year follow-up. Using 11 scorable ODARA items, area under the curve values were significant and ranged from .590 to .630, indicating small to medium effects. Expected/Observed indices revealed poor calibration with 2-year IPV recidivism rates in ODARA construction and cross-validation samples. Findings support the generalization of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in different populations and outcomes, but a need for new norm development for higher risk populations.

安大略省家庭袭击风险评估 (ODARA) 是一种针对亲密伴侣暴力 (IPV) 累犯的精算风险评估工具。尽管在国际上使用，但没有公开验证 ODARA 在美国样本中的预测准确性。我们研究了纽约警方针对女性伴侣的 IPV 记录中的 356 名男性，以检查 ODARA 对 IPV 累犯（基本率为 35%）、非 IPV 暴力累犯（针对非伴侣；16%）、任何暴力累犯（49 %) 和非暴力累犯 (50%)，在固定的 2 年随访中。使用 11 个可评分的 ODARA 项目，曲线下的面积值是显着的，范围从 0.590 到 0.630，表明影响很小到中等。预期/观察到的指数显示，ODARA 构建和交叉验证样本中的 2 年 IPV 再犯率校准不佳。