Purpose

Empirical evidence suggests that many triggers influence poor cost performance in highway projects, whereas previous studies about the cost overrun triggers stem from a positivist standpoint supported by conventional statistical techniques, thus disregarding the sophisticated interactions and overall dynamics of the triggers. This study contends for a paradigm shift in investigating and understanding cost overrun triggers by adopting a holistic perspective through the lens of system thinking. This study aims to contend for a paradigm shift in investigating and understanding cost overrun triggers by adopting a holistic perspective through the lens of system thinking.

Design/methodology/approach

Semi-structured interviews with industry stakeholders in Nigeria were conducted buttressed by textual data from literature sources and project documents. Data analysis based on a developed data compatible coding framework and causal relations from textual data sources was used to develop a causal loop diagram depicting the interactions of the triggers which were validated by experts.

Findings

The analysis of the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) allowed identification of action points used to suggest changes for improved cost-effective highway project delivery. Among the suggested interventions are ensuring the provision of adequate funding prior to contract award will result in timely delivery of projects and indeed delivering key projects at the contractual agreed budget. This can be achieved through ensuring strict adherence to the provisions of Section 4 (2) (b) of the Nigerian Public Procurement Act, 2007 which stipulates that no contract should be awarded if funds are not available from the onset.

Research limitations/implications

The study was limited to only highway infrastructure projects in Nigeria and as such caution must be taken before using the outcome of the study to other context within Nigeria and beyond.

Practical implications

From a practical point of view, the causal model demonstrates that this study is capable of being used to make pragmatic decisions regarding policy leverages about improving cost performance in highway projects provision in the Nigerian highway infrastructure sector of the construction industry. Moreover, it will aid a clear understanding of the key influencing triggers of cost overrun by the relevant stakeholders within the highway sector of the industry.

Originality/value

The hybrid-based approach applied in the development of CLDs in this study is expected to provide new insight into understanding the linkages, interactions, feedbacks and processes among the key cost overrun triggers and suggesting leverages for cost performance improvement within the philosophy of system thinking.

中文翻译：

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了解尼日利亚公路基础设施项目成本超支触发因素的动态：一种系统思维建模方法

目的

经验证据表明，许多触发因素会影响高速公路项目的成本绩效不佳，而先前关于成本超支触发因素的研究源于传统统计技术支持的实证主义观点，因此忽略了触发因素的复杂相互作用和整体动态。本研究主张通过系统思维的视角采用整体视角来调查和理解成本超支触发因素的范式转变。本研究旨在通过系统思维的视角采用整体视角，争取在调查和理解成本超支触发因素方面发生范式转变。

设计/方法/方法

在文献来源和项目文件的文本数据的支持下，对尼日利亚的行业利益相关者进行了半结构化访谈。基于已开发的数据兼容编码框架和来自文本数据源的因果关系的数据分析被用于开发描述由专家验证的触发器的交互的因果循环图。

发现

因果循环图 (CLD) 的分析允许识别用于建议更改以改进具有成本效益的公路项目交付的行动点。建议的干预措施包括确保在授予合同之前提供足够的资金，从而及时交付项目，并确实按照合同商定的预算交付关键项目。这可以通过确保严格遵守 2007 年《尼日利亚公共采购法》第 4 (2) (b) 条的规定来实现，该法规定，如果从一开始就没有资金，则不应授予合同。

研究限制/影响

该研究仅限于尼日利亚的公路基础设施项目，因此在将研究结果用于尼日利亚及其他地区的其他背景之前必须谨慎行事。

实际影响

从实践的角度来看，因果模型表明，该研究能够用于就提高尼日利亚建筑业公路基础设施部门公路项目提供的成本绩效的政策杠杆做出务实的决策。此外，这将有助于清楚地了解行业高速公路部门内相关利益相关者造成成本超支的关键影响因素。

原创性/价值

在本研究中应用于 CLD 开发的基于混合的方法有望为理解关键成本超支触发因素之间的联系、交互、反馈和过程提供新的见解，并建议在系统思维哲学内提高成本绩效的杠杆作用。