This study applies the latest probabilistic performance-based earthquake engineering tools in terms of nonlinear dynamic analyses in tandem with hazard-consistent record selection to assess the risk of collapse of RC tall buildings in the Istanbul metropolitan area and to quantify their seismic safety margin with respect to acceptable risk levels. Statistically representative archetype buildings selected from an extensive inventory form the basis for this assessment study. Accordingly, we chose five hypothetical building sites in Istanbul where tall buildings are densely populated to estimate the risk of collapse for 5 × 5 = 25 building-and-site specific cases. The results showed an average 10% probability of collapse under the ground-motion intensities with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The mean annual rates of collapse range between 0.1 × 10^–4 and 6.1 × 10^–4 with an average of 1.7 × 10^–4, which remains below the tolerable risk threshold value of 2.0 × 10^–4 envisioned by the FEMA’s Building Seismic Safety Council. However, 36% of the analyzed cases yielded collapse rates higher than this tolerable risk. Among the considered cases, the core walls and frame building was identified as the best design choice from a collapse safety point of view while the tunnel form archetype raised concern by exhibiting substantially higher collapse risk compared to other archetypes.

本研究在非线性动力分析方面应用最新的基于概率性能的地震工程工具与危险一致记录选择相结合，以评估伊斯坦布尔大都市区 RC 高层建筑倒塌的风险，并量化其地震安全裕度。到可接受的风险水平。从大量清单中选出的具有统计代表性的原型建筑构成了本评估研究的基础。因此，我们选择了伊斯坦布尔的五个假设建筑工地，其中高层建筑人口稠密，以估计 5 × 5 = 25 个建筑和工地特定案例的倒塌风险。结果表明，在地震动强度下，平均 10% 的坍塌概率和 50 年内超过 2% 的概率。^–4和 6.1 × 10 ^–4，平均为 1.7 × 10 ^–4，仍然低于FEMA 建筑地震安全委员会设想的 2.0 × 10 ^–4的可容忍风险阈值。然而，36% 的分析案例的崩溃率高于这个可容忍的风险。在考虑的案例中，从倒塌安全的角度来看，核心墙和框架建筑被认为是最佳设计选择，而隧道形式原型由于与其他原型相比表现出更高的倒塌风险而引起了关注。