The study of deterrence presents a number of challenges, mainly to do with identifying deterrence success and defining how deterrence works. Studying cyber deterrence presents even greater challenges, as traditional deterrence challenges are exacerbated and interactions in the cyber domain create further difficulties. When studying cyber deterrence, scholars face uncertainty not only in identifying situations of deterrence success, but also—due to the secrecy surrounding cyber practices—in identifying situations of deterrence failure. Despite the many studies on cyber deterrence, methodological solutions to address these challenges still need to be developed. To this end, I suggest focusing on the adoption and employment of the strategy rather than on its success. I argue that since communicating threats is a core element of deterrence, it is easier to observe how the strategy is adopted and employed than whether it succeeds or fails. This focus provides a promising direction to study cyber deterrence and address these challenges.

中文翻译：

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不叫的狗、会叫的狗和应该叫的狗：网络威慑研究的方法论

威慑研究提出了许多挑战，主要与识别威慑成功和定义威慑如何运作有关。研究网络威慑提出了更大的挑战，因为传统的威慑挑战正在加剧，网络领域的互动带来了更多的困难。在研究网络威慑时，学者们不仅在识别威慑成功的情况方面面临不确定性，而且由于围绕网络实践的保密性，在识别威慑失败的情况方面也面临着不确定性。尽管对网络威慑进行了许多研究，但仍需要开发应对这些挑战的方法论解决方案。为此，我建议专注于战略的采用和运用，而不是其成功。我认为，由于传达威胁是威慑的核心要素，观察策略是如何被采纳和运用的，比观察它是成功还是失败更容易观察。这一重点为研究网络威慑和应对这些挑战提供了一个有希望的方向。