Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct an index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies since 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks and find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

中文翻译：

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预期锚定和通胀持续性

了解通胀持续存在的根源对于货币政策至关重要。本文评估了通胀预期锚定对通胀持续性的影响。我们使用 1989 年以来 45 个经济体基于调查的通胀预测构建了通胀预期锚定指数。然后我们研究了消费者价格对贸易条件冲击的反应，发现这些冲击对消费者价格具有显着且持续的影响预期锚定不佳时的通货膨胀。相比之下，当预期强烈锚定时，通胀反应较小，并迅速恢复到其冲击前的水平。