We provide empirical evidence suggesting that net migration shocks can have substantial demand effects, potentially acting like positive Keynesian supply shocks. Using monthly administrative data (2006–2019) for Germany in a structural VAR, we show that the shocks stimulate vacancies, wages, house prices, consumption, investment, net exports, and output. Unemployment falls for natives (dominant job-creation effect), driving a decline in total unemployment, while rising for foreigners (dominant job-competition effect). The geographic origin of migrants and the education level of residents matter crucially for the transmission. Overall, the evidence implies that the policy debate should focus on redistributive strategies between natives and foreigners.

我们提供的经验证据表明，净移民冲击可以产生巨大的需求效应，可能像积极的凯恩斯主义供给冲击一样起作用。在结构性 VAR 中使用德国的月度行政数据（2006-2019），我们表明冲击刺激了职位空缺、工资、房价、消费、投资、净出口和产出。当地人的失业率下降（主要的就业创造效应），推动总失业率下降，而外国人的失业率上升（主要的就业竞争效应）。移民的地理来源和居民的教育水平对传播至关重要。总体而言，证据表明政策辩论应侧重于本地人和外国人之间的再分配策略。