The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure, and high-altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30-min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION-Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90% are overpredicted.

中文翻译：

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根据卫星观测评估极光预报

极光是许多公众感兴趣的显而易见的现象。然而，极光和相关现象也会对通信、地面基础设施和高空辐射暴露产生重大影响。因此，预测极光椭圆的位置是空间天气预报业务的一个关键组成部分。英国气象局空间天气运营中心 (MOSWOC) 使用了 OVATION-Prime 2013 极光降水模型的一个版本（Newell 等，2014，https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056）。英国气象局 OVATION-Prime 2013 模型的运营实施提供了对极光椭圆位置和观测极光概率的 30 分钟预报。使用天气预报评估技术，我们通过将预测与 2000 年至 2002 年间 IMAGE 卫星数据确定的极光边界进行比较来评估 OVATION-Prime 2013 模型预测预测极光发生位置和概率的能力。我们的分析表明，该操作模型表现良好在预测极光椭圆的位置时，相对操作特征 (ROC) 得分为 0.82。模型性能在白天当地时间扇区（ROC 分数 = 0.59）和地磁活动较高期间（Kp = 8 的 ROC 分数为 0.55）降低。作为概率预测，OVATION-Prime 2013 倾向于将极光的出现低估 1.1-6 倍，而超过 90% 的概率被高估。