Abstract

Severe flood events in the trans-boundary Shatt Al-Arab basin (Iraq-Iran) claim hundreds of human lives and cause damage to the economy and environment. Therefore, developing a flood hazard model to recognize the basin’s susceptible areas to flooding is important for decision makers for comprehensive flood risk management. The flood hazard map was prepared using geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) along with the application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to identify the optimal selection of weights for the factors that contribute to flood risk. The flooding causative factors used in this study were rainfall, distance to the river, digital elevation model (DEM), slope, land use/land cover (LULC), drainage density, soils, and lithology. The derived flood hazard map consisted of four distinct categories (zones). These zones that depict high, intermediate, low, and very low flood hazard cover around 20%, 40%, 39%, and 2% of the basin area, respectively. The produced flood hazard map was further verified using a historical flood event in the study area. The results were found to be consistent with the historical data of flood events, revealing the model’s effectiveness in the realistic representation of flood hazard mapping.

摘要

跨界阿拉伯河流域（伊拉克-伊朗）的严重洪水事件夺去了数百人的生命，并对经济和环境造成破坏。因此，开发洪水灾害模型以识别流域易受洪水影响的区域对于决策者进行综合洪水风险管理非常重要。洪水灾害图是使用地理信息系统 (GIS) 和多标准决策分析 (MCDA) 以及应用层次分析法 (AHP) 来确定影响洪水风险的因素的最佳权重选择的。本研究中使用的洪水成因包括降雨量、到河流的距离、数字高程模型 (DEM)、坡度、土地利用/土地覆盖 (LULC)、排水密度、土壤和岩性。导出的洪水灾害地图由四个不同的类别（区域）组成。这些描绘高、中、低和极低洪水危害的区域分别覆盖了流域面积的 20%、40%、39% 和 2%。使用研究区的历史洪水事件进一步验证了制作的洪水灾害图。发现结果与洪水事件的历史数据一致，揭示了该模型在洪水灾害图的现实表示中的有效性。