Extensive research has documented the immediate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on scientists, yet it remains unclear if and how such impacts have shifted over time. Here we compare results from two surveys of principal investigators, conducted between April 2020 and January 2021, along with analyses of large-scale publication data. We find that there has been a clear sign of recovery in some regards, as scientists' time spent on their work has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, the latest data also reveals a new dimension in which the pandemic is affecting the scientific workforce: the rate of initiating new research projects. Except for the small fraction of scientists who directly engaged in COVID-related research, most scientists started significantly fewer new research projects in 2020. This decline is most pronounced amongst the same demographic groups of scientists who reported the largest initial disruptions: female scientists and those with young children. Yet in sharp contrast to the earlier phase of the pandemic, when there were large disparities across scientific fields, this loss of new projects appears remarkably homogeneous across fields. Analyses of large-scale publication data reveal a global decline in the rate of new collaborations, especially in non-COVID-related preprints, which is consistent with the reported decline in new projects. Overall, these findings highlight that, while the end of the pandemic may appear in sight in some countries, its large and unequal impact on the scientific workforce may be enduring, which may have broad implications for inequality and the long-term vitality of science.

中文翻译：

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新思想的丧失：大流行对科学家的潜在长期影响

广泛的研究记录了 COVID-19 大流行对科学家的直接影响，但尚不清楚这些影响是否以及如何随着时间的推移而发生变化。在这里，我们比较了 2020 年 4 月至 2021 年 1 月期间对主要研究者进行的两项调查的结果，以及对大规模出版物数据的分析。我们发现在某些方面出现了明显的复苏迹象，因为科学家们花在工作上的时间几乎恢复到大流行前的水平。然而，最新数据也揭示了大流行正在影响科学工作者的一个新维度：启动新研究项目的速度。除了一小部分科学家直接从事与 COVID 相关的研究外，大多数科学家在 2020 年启动的新研究项目明显减少。这种下降在报告最初中断最大的科学家群体中最为明显：女科学家和有小孩的科学家。然而，与大流行的早期阶段形成鲜明对比的是，当科学领域之间存在巨大差异时，新项目的损失在各个领域似乎非常相似。对大规模出版数据的分析显示，全球新合作率下降，尤其是与 COVID 相关的预印本，这与报告的新项目下降一致。总体而言，这些研究结果强调，虽然在某些国家大流行可能即将结束，但它对科学劳动力的巨大且不平等的影响可能会持续下去，这可能对不平等和科学的长期活力产生广泛的影响。