Abstract

A real-time model for predicting the quasistationary solar wind speed at the near-Earth orbit is presented. The forecast of the high-speed solar wind stream velocity is obtained with an empirical model linking the areas of coronal holes to the solar wind speed. The forecast of the slow solar wind is based on data on the observed solar wind speed from the previous solar rotation. Over the whole analyzed period from May 2010 to December 2019, the coefficient of correlation between the observed and predicted solar wind speed values is 0.45, and the standard deviation is 88 km/s. The accuracy of forecasting the speed of quasistationary solar wind streams is comparable to the results of foreign models.

中文翻译：

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2010-2019 年准静态太阳风流预测分析

摘要

提出了一种用于预测近地轨道准静止太阳风速的实时模型。高速太阳风流速度的预测是通过将日冕孔面积与太阳风速联系起来的经验模型获得的。慢太阳风的预测是基于上次太阳自转观测到的太阳风速数据。在 2010 年 5 月至 2019 年 12 月的整个分析期间，太阳风速观测值与预测值的相关系数为 0.45，标准差为 88 km/s。准静止太阳风流速度预测精度与国外模型结果相当。