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Linking AMOC Variations With the Multidecadal Seesaw in Tropical Cyclone Activity Between Eastern North Pacific and Atlantic
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-29 , DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017308
Zhanqiu Gong 1 , Yusen Liu 1 , Cheng Sun 1, 2 , Jing Zhang 1 , Jianping Li 3, 4 , Chunming Shi 1
Affiliation  

Tropical cyclone (TC) over the North Atlantic is an important extreme weather event, causing great social and economic damages to the American coastal regions. In this study, we find that the North Atlantic TC activity (genesis frequency and accumulated cyclone energy) has significant multidecadal variability, which exhibits an out-of-phase relationship with that over the eastern North Pacific, referring to as the inter-basin seesaw in TC activity. By using five indicators of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength, we link this TC activity seesaw pattern to the AMOC and the associated North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. Both observation and Atlantic pacemaker experiment indicate that the AMOC induces the North Atlantic sea surface temperature warming and eastern North Pacific cooling, which lead to contrasting backgrounds (vertical wind shear, maximum potential intensity, and humidity) for the TC formation and development, resulting in the seesaw pattern in TC activity. Our results provide additional evidence for the reversed relationship in TC activity between the two ocean basins and attribute this seesaw to the variations in the AMOC. More importantly, the atmospheric-NAO-based AMOC indicator shows a leading role in depicting the multidecadal seesaw, which has great potential in improving the decadal prediction of North Atlantic/eastern North Pacific TCs.

中文翻译:

将 AMOC 变化与北太平洋东部和大西洋之间热带气旋活动中的多年跷跷板联系起来

北大西洋上空的热带气旋(TC)是一种重要的极端天气事件,给美国沿海地区造成了巨大的社会和经济损失。在本研究中,我们发现北大西洋台风活动(发生频率和累积气旋能量)具有显着的年代际变异性,与北太平洋东部的台风呈异相关系,称为跨盆地跷跷板。在 TC 活动中。通过使用大西洋经向翻转环流 (AMOC) 强度的五个指标,我们将这种 TC 活动跷跷板模式与 AMOC 和相关的北大西洋海面温度异常联系起来。观测和大西洋起搏器实验均表明,AMOC引起北大西洋海面温度升高和北太平洋东部变冷,这导致 TC 形成和发展的对比背景(垂直风切变、最大潜在强度和湿度),导致 TC 活动的跷跷板模式。我们的结果为两个海洋盆地之间 TC 活动的反向关系提供了额外的证据,并将这种跷跷板归因于 AMOC 的变化。更重要的是,基于大气-NAO的AMOC指标在描绘多年代际跷跷板方面显示出领先作用,在改善北大西洋/北太平洋东部TC的年代际预测方面具有巨大潜力。我们的结果为两个海洋盆地之间 TC 活动的反向关系提供了额外的证据,并将这种跷跷板归因于 AMOC 的变化。更重要的是,基于大气-NAO的AMOC指标在描绘多年代际跷跷板方面显示出领先作用,在改善北大西洋/北太平洋东部TC的年代际预测方面具有巨大潜力。我们的结果为两个海洋盆地之间 TC 活动的反向关系提供了额外的证据,并将这种跷跷板归因于 AMOC 的变化。更重要的是,基于大气-NAO的AMOC指标在描绘多年代际跷跷板方面显示出领先作用,在改善北大西洋/北太平洋东部TC的年代际预测方面具有巨大潜力。
更新日期:2021-08-10
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