ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the unemployment rate and suicide rate using data from all provinces of Iran and over the years 2009–2015. We exploit the variations in national industry-specific labor demand changes and province-level industry-composition as plausibly exogenous shocks to the province-level employment growth. Using a 2SLS-IV approach, we find that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with 0.72 and 0.68 higher incidences of suicide attempt and death per 100,000 population, respectively. Although both OLS and 2SLS-IV approach reveals consistent and statistically significant results, the marginal effects of the 2SLS-IV approach are larger, implying that Endogeneity issues underbias the OLS results of the relationship between unemployment rates and suicide rates.

摘要

在本文中，我们使用伊朗所有省份和 2009-2015 年的数据调查失业率与自杀率之间的关系。我们利用全国特定行业劳动力需求变化和省级行业构成的变化作为对省级就业增长的看似合理的外生冲击。使用 2SLS-IV 方法，我们发现失业率每增加 1 个百分点，每 100,000 人中自杀未遂和死亡的发生率分别增加 0.72 和 0.68。尽管 OLS 和 2SLS-IV 方法都显示出一致且具有统计学意义的结果，但 2SLS-IV 方法的边际效应更大，这意味着内生性问题低估了 OLS 失业率和自杀率之间关系的结果。