This study examines the relationship between real domestic sales and real exports for Turkish manufacturing firms. Dynamic panel data estimations based on firm-level data for the period 2004–2014 suggest that the two variables are substitutes. Other factors held constant, we estimate that a 10 percent decline in real domestic sales is associated with around 2.7 percent increase in real exports, on average. However, this relationship varies among manufacturing sub-sectors which are defined according to 2-digit NACE classification. Results indicate that substitutability between domestic and foreign sales is stronger for export-oriented, low-leveraged and younger firms and firms that operate in sectors whose exports are less import-dependent. Besides, the degree of substitution between the two variables significantly rises when domestic demand conditions are weak. This shows that exporter firms in the Turkish manufacturing industry can shift from domestic to international markets as a response to domestic demand shocks.

本研究考察了土耳其制造企业的实际国内销售和实际出口之间的关系。基于 2004-2014 年期间公司层面数据的动态面板数据估计表明这两个变量是替代变量。其他因素保持不变，我们估计实际国内销售下降 10% 与实际出口平均增长约 2.7% 相关。然而，这种关系在根据 2 位数 NACE 分类定义的制造子行业之间有所不同。结果表明，出口导向、低杠杆和年轻的公司以及在出口依赖度较低的部门经营的公司，国内和国外销售之间的替代性更强。除了，当国内需求疲软时，两个变量之间的替代程度显着上升。这表明土耳其制造业的出口企业可以从国内市场转向国际市场，以应对国内需求冲击。