Abstract

Mountain systems of Northern Pakistan are highly vulnerable due to their spatial locality, low natural capacity, insufficient or no alternatives to cope and to reduce the adverse impacts posed by natural stresses. This case study aims to provide a holistic approach to estimate district-level disaster risk and vulnerability rankings in the northern mountains of Pakistan (∼72,000 km²) by integrating inferences from the hazard and vulnerability assessments. Based on eight hazard and nine coping capacity indicators, districts are scaled by using Analytic Hierarchy Process and overlay weight analysis. The result shows that moderately exposed mountain communities with lower coping capacity is likely to cause calamities due to mountain-specific constraints. Specifically, the level of risk as the likelihood of destruction and severity is high in Shigar, Diamer and Ghanche. Moreover, Gilgit, Shigar and Ghizer lie in the Karakoram portion of Northern Pakistan are highly exposed to natural hazards. The ability of mountain communities residing in central Karakoram (Baltistan region) is lowest to withstand and cope with adverse effects of hazardous phenomena. This approach is expected to find possibilities for learning the relationship between hazards, likelihood of disasters and coping capacities of mountain communities.

摘要

巴基斯坦北部的山区系统由于其空间位置、低自然容量、不足或没有替代方案来应对和减少自然压力造成的不利影响而非常脆弱。本案例研究旨在提供一种整体方法来估计巴基斯坦北部山区（~72,000 km ²) 通过整合来自危害和脆弱性评估的推论。根据八项灾害和九项应对能力指标，使用层次分析法和叠加权重分析对地区进行缩放。结果表明，由于山地特有的限制，中度暴露、应对能力较低的山地社区很可能会造成灾害。具体而言，Shigar、Diamer 和 Ghanche 的破坏可能性和严重程度的风险水平很高。此外，吉尔吉特、希加尔和吉泽位于巴基斯坦北部喀喇昆仑地区，极易受到自然灾害的影响。居住在喀喇昆仑山中部（巴尔蒂斯坦地区）的山区社区承受和应对危险现象不利影响的能力最低。