Global conflicts are becoming increasingly transnational and often involve non-state actors. These trends mirror the diffusion of power that has resulted from globalization and the erosion of liberal hegemony since the late 1990s and early 2000s. Though projections vary among scholars, the future international system is likely to involve a diversification of actors exerting influence in all policy spheres, including conflict-response and peace operations. The United Nations (UN) and other liberal actors, historically dominant in peace operations, must adapt to remain relevant in a future where their governance of operations, and the underlying liberal democratic goals on which they are based, can no longer be assumed. In light of this waning liberal international order, this paper examines the core lessons learned from the past 70 years of UN peace operations to infer what future UN peacekeeping might look like and what adaptations will be necessary for this new environment. In so doing, we prepare recommendations for a truly localized and contextualized approach to peace operations that is expansive, representative and non-directive, ultimately necessitating the UN and other liberal actors to adopt higher risk tolerance and relinquish exclusive control over conflict-response and peace.

中文翻译：

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自由世界秩序的终结与联合国和平行动的未来：吸取的教训

全球冲突正变得越来越具有跨国性，而且往往涉及非国家行为者。这些趋势反映了自 1990 年代末和 2000 年代初以来全球化和自由霸权的侵蚀所导致的权力扩散。尽管学者们的预测各不相同，但未来的国际体系很可能涉及在所有政策领域（包括冲突应对和和平行动）施加影响的行为体的多样化。联合国 (UN) 和其他在和平行动中历来占主导地位的自由行动者必须适应，以在他们的行动治理及其所依据的基本自由民主目标不再被假设的未来保持相关性。鉴于这种日渐衰落的自由国际秩序，本文考察了从过去 70 年联合国和平行动中汲取的核心经验教训，以推断未来联合国维和行动可能会是什么样子，以及在这种新环境下需要进行哪些调整。在这样做的过程中，我们为真正本地化和情境化的和平行动方法准备了建议，该方法具有广泛性、代表性和非指导性，最终需要联合国和其他自由行动者采取更高的风险容忍度并放弃对冲突应对与和平的专属控制.