This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on an empirical model embedding transitory and permanent shocks. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent disturbances, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply shocks are found to be very influential in driving oil price fluctuations.

中文翻译：

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全球原油市场的暂时性和永久性冲击

本文基于嵌入暂时性和永久性冲击的经验模型，记录了全球市场实际油价的决定因素。我们发现暂时性和永久性干扰的传播机制存在显着差异的证据，指出了解开它们独特影响的重要性。发现永久性供应冲击对推动油价波动具有很大影响。