Fluctuations in the path of the Gulf Stream (GS) have been previously studied by primarily connecting to either the wind-driven subtropical gyre circulation or buoyancy forcing via the subpolar gyre. Here we present a statistical model for 1 year predictions of the GS path (represented by the GS northern wall—GSNW) between W and W incorporating both mechanisms in a combined framework. An existing model with multiple parameters including the previous year's GSNW index, center location, and amplitude of the Icelandic Low and the Southern Oscillation Index was augmented with basin-wide Ekman drift over the Azores High. The addition of the wind is supported by a validation of the simpler two-layer Parsons-Veronis model of GS separation over the last 40 years. A multivariate analysis was carried out to compare 1-year-in-advance forecast correlations from four different models. The optimal predictors of the best performing model include: (a) the GSNW index from the previous year, (b) gyre-scale integrated Ekman Drift over the past 2 years, and (c) longitude of the Icelandic Low center lagged by 3 years. The forecast correlation over the 27 years (1994–2020) is 0.65, an improvement from the previous multi-parameter model's forecast correlation of 0.52. The improvement is attributed to the addition of the wind-drift component. The sensitivity of forecasting the GS path after extreme atmospheric years is quantified. Results indicate the possibility of better understanding and enhanced predictability of the dominant wind-driven variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and of fisheries management models that use the GS path as a metric.

中文翻译：

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使用浮力和风力预测北大西洋上空的墨西哥湾流路径

墨西哥湾流 (GS) 路径的波动先前已通过主要连接到风驱动的亚热带环流环流或通过亚极环流强迫的浮力进行研究。在这里，我们提出了一个统计模型，用于 1 年预测W 和W 将这两种机制结合在一个组合框架中。现有模型具有多个参数，包括前一年的 GSNW 指数、中心位置以及冰岛低压和南方涛动指数的幅度，并通过亚速尔高压上的盆地范围 Ekman 漂移进行了增强。过去 40 年来，对更简单的两层 Parsons-Veronis GS 分离模型的验证支持了风的加入。进行了多变量分析以比较来自四个不同模型的提前 1 年预测相关性。最佳模型的最佳预测因子包括：(a) 前一年的 GSNW 指数，(b) 过去 2 年的环流尺度综合 Ekman Drift，以及 (c) 滞后 3 年的冰岛低地中心经度. 27 年（1994-2020）的预测相关系数为 0.65，比之前的多参数模型的预测相关性 0.52 有所改进。这种改进归因于增加了风漂移组件。对极端大气年之后预测 GS 路径的敏感性进行了量化。结果表明，有可能更好地理解大西洋经向翻转环流的主要风力驱动变异性和使用 GS 路径作为度量的渔业管理模型。