This study inspects the global changes in seasonal extreme ocean wave heights under different levels of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C) based on statistical wave projections derived from CMIP5 multi-model simulations. The results show robust increases in wave extremes up to 15% (∼1 m) over Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and tropical Pacific, particularly at 3 °C warming. Strong seasonality is observed, especially for the North Pacific. Under higher warming, stronger increases are identified in both amplitude and area of extreme wave heights. The change in magnitude translates into shorter return intervals of extreme wave events in a warmer world, particularly at 3 °C warming. Differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds reveal potential benefits of limiting global warming over large regions of global ocean. Strong inter-model relationships indicate that wave height increases are associated with intensified climate mode variability, particularly the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, in a warmer world. An important implication is the potential impact of increased wave extremes on West Antarctic ice shelves with respect to calving and associated loss of buttressing, which would facilitate sea level rise in a warmer world.

本研究基于来自 CMIP5 多模型模拟的统计波浪预测，检查了在不同全球变暖水平（1.5°C、2°C 和 3°C）下季节性极端海浪高度的全球变化。结果表明，在南半球高纬度地区和热带太平洋地区，波浪极端值大幅增加了 15% (∼1 m)，特别是在升温 3 °C 时。观察到强烈的季节性，尤其是在北太平洋。在更高的变暖下，极端波高的幅度和面积都有更强的增加。在更温暖的世界，特别是在升温 3 °C 时，震级的变化会转化为更短的极端波浪事件重现间隔。1.5 °C 和 2 °C 之间的差异揭示了限制全球海洋大面积全球变暖的潜在好处。强烈的模式间关系表明，波高的增加与气候模式变率的加剧有关，特别是在温暖的世界中，南方环状模式和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动。一个重要的含义是增加的极端波浪对南极西部冰架的潜在影响与崩解和相关的支撑损失有关，这将促进更温暖的世界的海平面上升。