ABSTRACT

This work focuses on the duration of air connections in Europe and investigates the main factors affecting the probability that specific air routes survive over time. Socio-economic and geographical characteristics as well as modal competition, public subsidies and other airport/carrier-related factors are investigated. Moreover, we derive from our analysis the probabilities of connection dropouts to characterize European regions on the basis of their expected risks of increasing isolation. Our results might be of particular interest for policymakers and airport managers who intend to prevent their regions/airports from being affected by the negative consequences of increasing isolation. This is especially true in a context of expected increasing consolidation by major European network carriers.

摘要

这项工作侧重于欧洲航空连接的持续时间，并调查影响特定航线随时间存活的概率的主要因素。调查了社会经济和地理特征以及模式竞争、公共补贴和其他与机场/承运人相关的因素。此外，我们从分析中得出连接中断的概率，以根据欧洲地区日益孤立的预期风险来表征欧洲地区。我们的结果可能对打算防止其地区/机场受到日益孤立的负面后果影响的政策制定者和机场管理者特别感兴趣。在预期欧洲主要网络运营商日益整合的背景下，尤其如此。