We analyse the global effects from the austerity policies recently implemented in the EU, by developing an extension of the GTAP general equilibrium model. The extended model incorporates a new specification of the trade balance (i.e. endogenous), the labour market (i.e. unemployment under a wage curve framework) and the public sector (i.e. split from the representative national agent, with endogenous expenditure and savings). Three alternative policies aimed to get a one percentage point reduction in the EU’s government deficit to GDP ratio are simulated, and their effects on the main macroeconomic variables of seven regions of the world economy are examined. The three policy measures led to contractionary effects on the EU’s activity levels, together with changes in income distribution, always detrimental to labour. The effects on the rest of the world, driven by changes in trade flows, were, however, mostly negligible.

中文翻译：

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欧盟紧缩政策的多国分析

我们通过扩展 GTAP 一般均衡模型来分析最近在欧盟实施的紧缩政策对全球的影响。扩展模型包含了贸易差额（即内生的）、劳动力市场（即工资曲线框架下的失业）和公共部门（即从具有代表性的国家代理人中分离出来，具有内生的支出和储蓄）的新规范。模拟了旨在将欧盟政府赤字占 GDP 比率降低 1 个百分点的三种替代政策，并研究了它们对世界经济七个地区主要宏观经济变量的影响。这三项政策措施导致对欧盟活动水平的收缩影响，以及收入分配的变化，总是不利于劳动力。