The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.

中文翻译：

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意大利的第二波 COVID-19：繁殖数量和累积病例预测的初步估计

仅在 2020 年 10 月，意大利的第二波新型冠状病毒就已造成 247,369 例新病例和 1782 例死亡。这使传染病控制委员会再次采取缓解措施以控制疫情增长的情况令人震惊。在本文中，我们估计了最新的 COVID-19 繁殖数 (R_0)，并预测了未来 45 天的流行规模。R_0 值计算为 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) 和累积发病率 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352)，日发病率可能分别达到 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) .