An extensive literature has examined the economic effects of non-violent political instability events. Nonetheless, the issue of whether economies react differently over time to such events remains largely unexplored. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability, we estimate the output effect of 38 regime crises in the period 1970–2011. A crucial factor is whether crises are accompanied by mass civil protest. In the crises accompanied by mass civil protest, there is typically an immediate fall in output which is never recovered in the subsequent five years. In crises unaccompanied by protest, there are usually no significant output effects. It is unclear, however, whether mass civil protest causes the greater fall in output or is simply an indicator of a more severe political crisis.

中文翻译：

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政治不稳定和大规模民间抗议的经济影响

大量文献研究了非暴力政治不稳定事件的经济影响。尽管如此，随着时间的推移，经济体对此类事件的反应是否不同的问题在很大程度上仍未得到探索。使用在没有政治不稳定的情况下构建反事实的综合控制方法，我们估计了 1970-2011 年期间 38 次政权危机的产出效应。一个关键因素是危机是否伴随着大规模的公民抗议。在伴随着大规模公民抗议的危机中，产出通常会立即下降，并且在随后的五年中从未恢复。在没有抗议的危机中，通常不会产生显着的产出效应。然而，尚不清楚大规模的民间抗议是导致产出大幅下降还是仅仅是政治危机更严重的一个指标。