Choice prediction competitions suggest that popular models of choice, including prospect theory, have low predictive accuracy. Peterson et al. show the key problem lies in assuming each alternative is evaluated in isolation, independently of the context. This observation demonstrates how a focus on predictions can promote understanding of cognitive processes.

中文翻译：

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要预测人类选择，请考虑上下文

选择预测竞赛表明，流行的选择模型，包括前景理论，预测准确度较低。彼得森等人。显示关键问题在于假设每个备选方案都是独立评估的，独立于上下文。这一观察表明关注预测如何促进对认知过程的理解。