We investigate the performance and learning ability of traders in an environment governed by ambiguity, such as the cryptocurrency market. Using a profit decomposition methodology, we find significant cross-sectional and temporal heterogeneity in performance. Traders do not learn to progressively increase the magnitude of returns; however, they are able to improve on their ability to realise profits as a mechanism of adaptation to survive through ambiguity. This adaptation increases as traders progress through their career. Moreover, we find evidence in support of the gambler’s fallacy. We argue that learning in ambiguous environments has limitations, allowing traders primarily to survive.

我们调查交易者在受模糊性控制的环境中的表现和学习能力，例如加密货币市场。使用利润分解方法，我们发现绩效存在显着的横截面和时间异质性。交易者不会学习逐步增加回报的幅度；然而，他们能够提高他们实现利润的能力，作为一种适应机制，通过模棱两可生存。随着交易者在职业生涯中的进步，这种适应会增加。此外，我们找到了支持赌徒谬论的证据。我们认为，在模棱两可的环境中学习是有局限性的，交易者主要是为了生存。