Understanding forecast revisions is critical for weather forecast users to determine the optimal timing for their planning decisions. A set of multi-horizon forecasts for wind speed produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 12 weather stations in eastern Australia are examined. The forecasts are examined in terms of the econometric definition of rationality and, as a robustness check, the economic value of the forecasts is also assessed using a cost–loss model. It is demonstrated that while the forecasts exhibit some of the characteristics of rational forecasts, when official testing is introduced forecast rationality is rejected at all the weather stations considered. Furthermore, the behaviour of the forecasts is shown to be very erratic over the course of the day and over forecast horizons. Although there is some evidence that the official forecasts can provide positive economic value, this metric also indicates that there is substantial room for improvement.

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评估澳大利亚气象局官方风速预报的信息内容*

了解预报修订对于天气预报用户确定其规划决策的最佳时机至关重要。由澳大利亚气象局为澳大利亚东部的 12 个气象站制作的一组多视距风速预报进行了检查。根据合理性的计量经济学定义对预测进行检查，作为稳健性检查，还使用成本损失模型评估预测的经济价值。结果表明，虽然预测表现出理性预测的一些特征，但当引入官方测试时，所有考虑的气象站都拒绝预测合理性。此外，预测的行为在一天中和预测范围内被证明是非常不稳定的。