The COVID-19 crisis is dramatically affecting the world economy and, particularly, the tourism sector. In the context of extreme uncertainty, the use of probabilistic forecasting models is especially suitable. We use Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the outcomes of four possible tourism demand recovery scenarios in the Balearic Islands, which are further used to measure the risks and vulnerability of Balearic economy to the COVID-19 crisis. Our results show that fear of contagion and loss of income in tourism emitting countries will result in a maximum 89% drop in arrivals in the Balearic Islands in 2020.Given that most tourism-related occupations are not highly skilled and are characterized by lower salaries, there are greater risks of loss of welfare, especially for women, who are a major share of the tourism labour force.The model shows important differences among minimum, average and maximum estimates for tourism sector production in 2021, reflecting considerable uncertainty regarding the speed of the sector's recovery. The results serve as a basis to prepare a range of policies to reduce destination vulnerability under different crisis outcomes.

COVID-19 危机正在极大地影响世界经济，尤其是旅游业。在极端不确定的情况下，使用概率预测模型尤其合适。我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟来评估巴利阿里群岛四种可能的旅游需求恢复情景的结果，这些情景进一步用于衡量巴利阿里经济对 COVID-19 危机的风险和脆弱性。我们的研究结果表明，对旅游业的蔓延和收入损失的恐惧将导致 2020 年巴利阿里群岛的入境人数最多下降 89%。丧失福利的风险更大，尤其是对在旅游劳动力中占主要份额的妇女而言。该模型显示了 2021 年旅游业生产的最小值、平均值和最大值之间的重要差异，反映了该部门复苏速度的相当大的不确定性。结果可作为制定一系列政策的基础，以减少不同危机结果下的目的地脆弱性。