Host adaptation to novel pathogen introduction: Predicting conditions that promote evolutionary rescue,Ecology Letters

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Host adaptation to novel pathogen introduction: Predicting conditions that promote evolutionary rescue
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-26 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13845
Benjamin D Golas ₁ , Brandon Goodell ₂ , Colleen T Webb ₁

Affiliation

Novel pathogen introduction can have drastic consequences for naive host populations, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. Evolutionary rescue (ER) provides a foundation for understanding whether hosts are driven to extinction or survive via adaptation. Currently, patterns of host population dynamics alongside evidence of adaptation are used to infer ER. However, the gap between established ER theory and complexity inherent in natural systems makes interpreting empirical patterns difficult because they can be confounded with ecological drivers of survival under current theory. To bridge this gap, we expand ER theory to include biological selective agents, such as pathogens. We find birth processes to be more important than previously theorised in determining ER potential. We employ a novel framework evaluating ER potential within natural systems and gain ability to identify system characteristics that make ER possible. Identifying these characteristics allows a shift from retrospective observation to a predictive mindset, and our findings suggest that ER occurrence may be more limited than previously thought. We use the plague system of Yersinia pestis infecting Cynomys ludovicianus (black-tailed prairie dogs) and Spermophilus beecheyi (California ground squirrels) as a case study.

中文翻译：

宿主对新病原体引入的适应：预测促进进化拯救的条件

新病原体的引入可能会对幼稚的宿主种群产生严重的后果，而且结果可能难以预测。进化拯救 (ER) 为理解宿主是被驱使灭绝还是通过适应生存提供了基础。目前，宿主种群动态模式以及适应证据被用于推断 ER。然而，已建立的 ER 理论与自然系统固有的复杂性之间的差距使得解释经验模式变得困难，因为它们可能与当前理论下的生态生存驱动因素混淆。为了弥合这一差距，我们将 ER 理论扩展到包括生物选择剂，例如病原体。我们发现在确定 ER 潜力方面，出生过程比以前的理论更重要。我们采用了一种新颖的框架来评估自然系统内的 ER 潜力，并获得识别使 ER 成为可能的系统特征的能力。识别这些特征允许从回顾性观察转变为预测思维，我们的研究结果表明 ER 的发生可能比以前认为的更有限。我们使用瘟疫系统鼠疫耶尔森菌感染Cynomys ludovicianus（黑尾土拨鼠）和Spermophilus beecheyi（加利福尼亚地松鼠）作为案例研究。

更新日期：2021-09-09

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